How do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multicountry Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates

Abstract We use two-round survey data from 62 elections in 10 countries since 1952 to study the formation of vote choice, beliefs, and policy preferences assess how televised debates contribute this process. Our include 253,000 observations. compare consistency between intention choice respondents surveyed at different points before, then again after, election, show that 17% 29% voters make up their mind during final two months campaigns. Changes are concomitant shifts issues find most important beliefs about candidates, they generate sizable swings shares. In contrast, remain remarkably stable throughout campaign. Finally, we an event estimate impact TV debates, which candidates themselves communicate with voters, shocks such as natural technological disasters which, by occur independently do not any effect either type on formation, suggesting information received campaign other sources media, political activists, citizens is more impactful.